When do shelter‐in‐place orders fight COVID‐19 best? Policy heterogeneity across states and adoption time

Abstract

This study explores the impact of Shelter-in-Place Orders (SIPOs) on health, with attention to heterogeneity in their impacts. First, using daily state-level social distancing data, we document that adoption of a SIPO was associated with a 9%–10% increase in the rate at which state residents remained in their homes full-time. Using daily state-level coronavirus case data, we find that approximately 3 weeks following the adoption of a SIPO, cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by approximately 53.5%. However, this average effect masks important heterogeneity across states-early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs.

Kyutaro Matsuzawa
Kyutaro Matsuzawa
PhD Candidate in Economics

I am an economics PhD candidate at the University of Oregon. I am an applied microeconomist with broad interests in health, labor, and public economics and specific interests in researching how public policies affect health behavior, criminality, and principal-agent problems policing. I will be on the job market for the 2024-2025 academic year.